Version change chaos theory

Every new year begins with the obligatory sales events. At SAP, it's called FKOM, Field Kick-off Meeting, and is the very big stage for SAP CEO Bill McDermott. I then sit relaxed in my office and think about the future: Not about the sales figures Bill has set for 2019 and how much IT budget SAP will take out of our pockets this year, but about the next ten years with the magic year 2025.

A waste of time, according to my wife:

"In ten years, the only thing that should be an issue is designing your retirement!" Naturally, she is right. But many things have become hectic and very short-lived, so that keeping one's distance and looking a little further into the future have become pleasant luxuries. And of course, being able to let go is an equally challenging topic for the future.

If I want to learn about the future of SAP, I go to the golf course in St. Leon-Rot in the summer and stay in Heidelberg in the winter.

The best place to philosophize about SAP is on the golf course and in a good restaurant in and around Heidelberg. After all, it's not easy to predict the future of the global ERP company.

The SAP service marketplace is where existing customers find SAP's future for the next twelve to 18 months. These roadmaps are nice to look at, but not sufficient for validated planning.

Strictly speaking, these SAP roadmaps are interesting declarations of intent and visions, but unfortunately no tangible functional descriptions.

In personal conversations, one naturally learns more, but the uncertainty is rarely reduced by my informants. Of course, my friends in Walldorf hear a lot, but very little can be verified.

What is to happen in SAP's universe over the next 36 months is something that even "insiders" know only very vaguely. Yes, it is frightening and surprising again every time we visit SAP headquarters how little the employees know about the ways and wishes of the Executive Board.

At SAP, people are increasingly living, developing and programming from hand to mouth, which means that development cycles are becoming shorter and shorter and half-finished software is being delivered, so that SAP's existing customers have to serve as guinea pigs.

If the proof of concept turns out well, the product will be developed further; otherwise, SAP will remove it from the roadmap.

However, I have to present a detailed five-year concept with an option for ten years to my board. This seems almost impossible in chaotic IT, but it is necessary!

If you want to do responsible budget and infrastructure planning for corporations, you can't get around these reporting periods. But creating a five-year plan with SAP is almost impossible and only possible with the very best relationships in top management.

An example of how it should not be! SAP's Leonardo Congress 2017 in Frankfurt/M was an exciting kick-off together with Professor Henning Kagermann.

The results of the congress were meager, but at least one had the impression that SAP was taking the topic of Industry 4.0 and IoT seriously. Many analysts grumbled at the time about the vague product announcements, and in fact everything was knitted with a hot needle at the time.

But SAP's existing customers were confident because the direction they were taking was right. 18 months later, everything has come to nothing: Leonardo is hardly an issue anymore, and Bernd Leukert, the patron saint of SAP's Leonardo framework, has had to vacate his seat on the board of directors for technology for a new candidate.

My theory: SAP is living more and more from hand to mouth. Long-term and verifiable product developments and version changes are becoming scarce. Despite numerous existing roadmaps, the chaos theory prevails: Some butterfly wing beat will already lead to success.

Or did any of my readers hear a word about C/4 at the beginning of 2018, which then appeared like the famous rabbit from the magician's top hat to the Sapphire in June? SAP should patent this version change chaos theory - here's to a successful SAP year 2019!